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A financial analysis of the effect of the mix of crop and sheep enterprises on the risk profile of dryland farms in south-eastern Australia AgEcon
Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L..
This study analyses the financial risk faced by representative mixed-enterprise farm businesses in four regions of south-eastern Australia. It uses discrete stochastic programming to optimise the ten-year cash flow margins produced by these farms, operating three alternative farming systems. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to produce a risk profile for each scenario, derived from multiple runs of this optimised model, randomised for commodity prices and decadal growing season rainfall since 1920. This analysis shows that the performance of the enterprise mixes at each site is characterised more by the level of variability of outcomes than by the mean values of financial outputs. It demonstrates that relying on mean values for climate and prices...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Farm management; Financial risk; Climate risk; Price risk; Variability; Farm Management.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120908
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Determinants of the Strength of Strategic Adjustments in Farm Capital Structure AgEcon
Escalante, Cesar L.; Barry, Peter J..
This study employs correlation relationships to measure the strength of trade-offs between business and financial risks as a representative of the strategic capital adjustment process. Under different business risk measures based on varying lengths of historical farm income data, results suggest that farmers tend to adopt a myopic perspective when contemplating risk-balancing plans. Cross-sectional regression results for two-time period models covering the decade of the 1980s and 1990s yielded important implications. The liquidity-constrained environment of the 1980s emphasizes the combination of risk-balancing plans, specialization, and market revenue-enhancing strategies. In the 1990s, risk balancing becomes compatible with risk-reducing crop...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Business risk; Correlation coefficient measure of risk balancing; Expected utility mean variance model; Financial risk; Risk management strategy; Stochastic interest rates; Strategic capital adjustment; D21; D81; G11; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37834
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Do Australian woolgrowers manage price risk rationally? AgEcon
Deane, Paul; Malcolm, Bill.
Australian woolgrowers have not adopted price risk management in the last decade. This is despite a concerted effort at various times by participants in the wool industry to encourage growers to use hedging/forward selling. The explanation for the reluctance of woolgrowers to use futures market and forward pricing instruments lies not in market failure but in characteristics of wool producing farm businesses. In particular, the degree of business and financial risk and the interaction between the two helps to explain why woolgrowers do not use futures. In the context of the whole farm system, Australian woolgrowers are behaving as rational managers of wool price risk.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Price risk management; Motivation for hedging; Business risk; Financial risk; Australian woolgrow; Farm Management.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122518
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Financial risk monitoring and transaction costs in coffee & soybean trading companies and processors Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural
Bignotto,Edson Costa; Azevedo Filho,Adriano.
This study characterizes the use of risk monitoring mechanisms by coffee and soybean trading and processing companies. It also investigates the role these mechanisms play in the mitigation of certain transaction costs associated to bounded rationality, information asymmetry, and business opportunism in negotiations involving derivatives. The results presented are based on literature and original research, which consisted of interviews with 19 coffee and soybean trading and processing company agents that deal with the management and execution of derivatives trades. The interviews suggest that the interest in formal risk monitoring mechanisms depends strongly on the organizational structure of the business. In family businesses, in which the owner...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Transaction cost; Financial risk; Coffee; Soybeans.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032003000100002
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MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY AgEcon
Vinzant, Patrick L.; Neibergs, J. Shannon.
Thoroughbred racehorses are commonly characterized as unprofitable investments. Previous studies, grouping all racehorses together, estimate that over 80% of all racehorses in training fail to earn enough to recover the variable costs of training. However, these studies are not truly representative, because they fail to account for a number of factors affecting profitability. This study estimates expected purse earnings and profitability of claiming horses in Kentucky. Maximum-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a mean of $25,267. Profitability is best described by a Gamma distribution with a mean of $4,824. Of the 305 claims analyzed for profitability,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Claiming horses; Financial risk; Maximum likelihood; Probability; Profitability; Thoroughbred; Agribusiness.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14682
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PRICE VARIABILITY AND FINANCIAL RISK FOR SUGAR BEET GROWERS AgEcon
Nganje, William E.; Stoltman, Gwen.
This paper develops a portfolio framework to characterize and analyze the impact of price risk faced by sugar beet growers in the Red River Valley and derives implications for capital markets. Other sources of risk incorporated in the analysis are yields and production cost. Results from stochastic simulation analysis reveal that sugar beet growers incur significant price and financial risk. The hypothesis that the loan rate for sugar truncates the distribution of net returns and protects growers against declining beets prices was not validated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Financial risk; Total risk; Price variability; Stochastic simulation of net return; Default risk; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36493
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RISK BALANCING IN AN INTEGRATED FARM RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN AgEcon
Escalante, Cesar L.; Barry, Peter J..
Using optimization techniques in a simulation framework, this study demonstrates the synergy between risk balancing and alternative strategies in effectively reducing risk under changing farm conditions. Highly risk-averse farmers tend to prefer integrated risk-management plans, based on the diversification principle, that yield offsetting combinations of the risk-reducing benefits of most strategies and the profit-generating capacities of the others. The greater appeal of a more diversified plan usually downplays the risk balancing strategy as the farm utilizes credit reserves to implement other production and marketing plans considered essential to overall risk reduction. The farm, however, still realizes overall, although more regulated, reduction in...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Business risk; Expected utility-mean variance framework; Financial risk; Multiperiod quadratic programming model; Risk Balancing Hypothesis; Farm Management; Q12.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15461
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VALUE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL TO MID-SIZED NORTHERN PLAINS FARMS AgEcon
Gustafson, Cole R..
As farms increase in size, operators face the decision of remaining loyal to local merchants or obtaining volume discounts from distant input suppliers. When farmers bypass local merchants and buy inputs in volume, they often realize price discounts but forego many services including credit forebearance. When farmers buy locally, they pay higher prices, which decreases profits and increases financial risk, but generates social capital which can be drawn upon during periods of economic adversity. A theoretical model of farm financial risk evaluates borrower behavior in light of cash flow constraints, volume discounts, and social capital. Results delineate financial risks involved and value of social capital.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Capital; Financial risk; Simulation; Social; Stochastic; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19169
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VALUE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL TO MID-SIZED NORTHERN PLAINS FARMS AgEcon
Gustafson, Cole R..
As farms increase in size, operators often face the difficult decision of remaining loyal to local merchants or obtaining volume discounts from more distant input suppliers. When farmers bypass local merchants and buy inputs in volume from a wholesaler, they often realize a price discount but forego many services including credit forebearance. In essence, when farmers buy locally, they pay higher prices, which decreases profits and increases financial risk, but generates social capital which can be drawn upon during periods of economic adversity later in the form of credit forebearance. A theoretical model of farm financial risk evaluates borrower behavior in light of cash flow constraints, volume discounts, and social capital. Monte-carlo simulation...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Social; Capital; Financial risk; Simulation; Stochastic; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23677
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Valuing Transgenic Cotton Technologies Using a Risk/Return Framework AgEcon
Bryant, Kelly J.; Reeves, Jeanne M.; Nichols, Robert L.; Greene, Jeremy K.; Tingle, Christopher H.; Studebaker, Glenn E.; Bourland, Fred M.; Capps, Charles D.; Groves, Frank E..
Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for nontransgenic, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, and stacked gene cotton cultivars. Analysis of Arkansas data indicated that the stacked gene and Roundup Ready technologies would be preferred by a large number of risk neutral and risk averse producers as long as the costs of the technology and seed are below the lower bounds calculated in this manuscript.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Financial risk; Market value; SERF; Transgenic; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47257
Registros recuperados: 10
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